trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $20 | −$2 | -10% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $40 | −$3 | -6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $45 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 09 | $21 | −$1 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $44 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 09 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | Apr 27 | $352 | −$13 | -4% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Apr 24 | $9 | −$1 | -9% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 24 | $30 | −$3 | -11% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $17 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun | Apr 22 | $68 | +$6 | +9% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 21 | $55 | +$20 | +36% |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | Apr 19 | $12 | +$7 | +64% |
| Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? | Apr 17 | $26 | +$2 | +9% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Apr 13 | $3 | $0 | -7% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Apr 13 | $283 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Apr 13 | $31 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 12 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 12 | $255 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom | Apr 12 | $281 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 11 | $7 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Apr 10 | $253 | +$3 | +1% |
| San Diego vs. Pepperdine | Feb 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? | Jan 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 14% | 0% | -12.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 14% | 0% | -12.4% |
| ≤90d | 24 | +38.6% | +25.4% | 33% | 12% | -8.7% |
| all | 26 | +28.0% | +15.8% | 31% | 12% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.8% | 12% | -9.2% |
| 10% | +4.7% | 12% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -5.4% | 12% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -14.7% | 8% | -33.1% |