Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x24da…0b29 world 102 markets active 15h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,977 (+13%) realized +$6,335 · open −$358
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%65W / 27L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,022now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,248
7 days−$1,178
14 days−$530
30 days+$631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$3,005
finance 17% +$3,183
politics 8% −$71
sports 6% +$511
other 5% +$88
culture 2% −$750
crypto 1% −$316
tech 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 80% 60% -58.2%
≤30d 11 +8.9% -1.5% 82% 64% -1.5%
≤90d 54 +0.1% -9.4% 63% 57% +3.1%
all 92 +10.6% +0.0% 71% 59% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 59% +4.2%
10% -9.5% 50% -5.8%
15% -18.3% 34% -14.9%
20% -26.3% 27% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$630) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$237 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$4,022
Realized+$6,335
Unrealized−$358
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses65 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)92 / 102
History coverage153d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 77¢ 99¢ $953 $1,229 +$277 (+29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 71¢ 99¢ $590 $824 +$234 (+40%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $747 $788 +$40 (+5%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 22¢ $1,480 $540 −$941 (-64%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? No 79¢ 78¢ $213 $213 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 67¢ 100¢ $124 $185 +$60 (+49%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $176 $99 −$77 (-44%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 55¢ 99¢ $38 $69 +$30 (+79%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $48 $62 +$13 (+27%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 47¢ 70¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $258 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $38 +$12 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,650 −$1,260 -76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $167 +$45 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $76 +$26 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,110 +$648 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,064 +$336 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,416 +$784 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 26 $273 +$27 +10%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $31 +$16 +51%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 02 $1,021 +$209 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $609 +$391 +64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $467 +$574 +123%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $1,472 +$505 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $1,519 +$1,099 +72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $1,445 −$104 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $143 +$127 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $640 +$220 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $473 +$109 +23%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Apr 21 $21 +$22 +106%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $304 +$92 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $182 +$77 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 19 $57 −$34 -60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $87 +$54 +62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 17 $259 +$194 +75%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $126 +$12 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $2,152 +$398 +18%
Will Trump name "Kamala" in April? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 03 $80 +$21 +26%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $1,431 −$1,056 -74%
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $201 +$99 +49%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $884 −$834 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $56 +$44 +79%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $43 +$65 +151%
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? Apr 01 $201 +$35 +18%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $711 +$847 +119%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1,348 +$1,412 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Mar 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Mar 25 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31? Mar 25 $70 −$70 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Mar 25 $315 +$389 +124%
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during the Detroit speech on Tu Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Mar 25 $750 −$750 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Mar 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $259 14h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $220 15h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $38 15h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 16h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $100 16h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $816 17h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 24h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $96 24h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $65 24h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $225 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $390 27h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 36h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 36h
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY No 81¢ $158 2d
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? BUY No 81¢ $4 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,021.50 · official $4,021.50 (match) · 574 history records