Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24dc…25ab sports 90 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,486 (-7%) realized −$1,486 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%34W / 56L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$241est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$53
14 days−$612
30 days+$507
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,802
other 14% +$162
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.3% -12.5% 27% 18% -8.5%
≤30d 45 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 38% -5.6%
≤90d 90 -13.7% -22.0% 38% 37% -16.5%
all 90 -13.7% -22.0% 38% 37% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 37% -16.5%
10% -29.4% 36% -24.5%
15% -36.2% 32% -31.8%
20% -42.5% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$143 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses34 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$241
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage49d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 29 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $518 +$335 +65%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $141 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $724 −$285 -39%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 +$136 +442%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,890 +$117 +4%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $122 +$69 +57%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $275 +$157 +57%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 20 $699 −$683 -98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $126 −$125 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $67 −$66 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 +$37 +83%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $50 −$48 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $313 +$71 +23%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $353 −$270 -76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $105 −$103 -97%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $25 +$68 +276%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $1,186 +$230 +19%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $347 +$166 +48%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $415 −$16 -4%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs NightBirds (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $78 −$76 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $32 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $10 −$9 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $153 −$149 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $948 +$667 +70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $387 +$361 +93%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $89 −$87 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $122 +$69 +57%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 03 $185 −$182 -99%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 03 $193 +$76 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $374 −$10 -3%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $101 +$141 +140%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $303 +$241 +79%
LoL: Forsaken vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 31 $132 −$130 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $102 +$143 +140%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $45 −$44 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 28 $63 −$59 -95%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $140 −$136 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $402 +$160 +40%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $736 +$457 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $22 3h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes $23 6h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $30 24h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $0 32h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY Yes $31 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $141 4d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $518 4d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 82¢ $724 5d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 22¢ $21 5d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $31 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $31 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $31 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $31 6d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,890 6d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 7d
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY ROSE 42¢ $50 7d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 8d
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records