Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

24 0x24dd…5601 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$107 (+23%) realized +$110 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip

Net edge-11%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%9W / 6L

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+2.7%	-7.1%	60%	60%	+18.2%
≤30d	15	+2.7%	-7.1%	60%	60%	+18.2%
≤90d	15	+2.7%	-7.1%	60%	60%	+18.2%
all	15	+2.7%	-7.1%	60%	60%	+18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.1%	60%	+18.2%
10%	-16.0%	60%	+6.9%
15%	-24.1%	60%	-3.4%
20%	-31.5%	47%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +22% → late -14% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$117

Realized+$110

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses9 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage7d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$55	$53	−$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	42¢	$35	$34	−$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	20¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 21	$3	−$2	-97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$68	+$34	+51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$23	+74%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$35	+$32	+92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 19	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$20	+$12	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$27	+134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$14	+$6	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$44	+$22	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$36	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$56	1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$3	15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$46	38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$14	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$21	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	56¢	$10	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$20	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$14	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$14	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$11	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.01 · official $117.01 (match) · 40 history records