Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24de…98cc other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 328d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1
world 21% −$6
politics 11% $0
economics 7% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 11 -3.0% -12.3% 18% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 -3.0% -12.3% 18% 0% -11.2%
all 45 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage328d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $66 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $3 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 −$4 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $18 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
"Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69? Aug 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 28 $61 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $3 $0 -3%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $68 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $6 4m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 4m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $31 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $23 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $29 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $32 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $32 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $13 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $3 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $18 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $13 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $26 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 132 history records