Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x24e0…6177 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%121W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$13
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$15
finance 29% +$129
other 18% −$12
crypto 8% −$82
politics 7% −$7
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% −$3
culture 0% +$2
sports 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 30% -5.4%
≤30d 19 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 32% -9.8%
≤90d 65 -20.5% -28.1% 40% 25% -8.0%
all 258 -6.9% -15.8% 47% 35% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 35% -9.0%
10% -23.8% 27% -17.7%
15% -31.2% 22% -25.6%
20% -37.9% 16% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses121 / 137
Open positions3
Markets (closed)258 / 261
History coverage353d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+24%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 62¢ 64¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +65%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $26 +$5 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $88 +$7 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $14 −$7 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -22%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $23 −$23 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $25 +$3 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 25 $23 +$6 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 22 $9 −$3 -30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $9 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $61 +$11 +18%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 07 $20 +$3 +13%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 07 $3 −$2 -61%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 02 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Apr 29 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Apr 29 $81 +$9 +11%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 25 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 21 $70 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 21 $15 −$2 -15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Trump out as President before 2027? Apr 21 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 20 $18 −$2 -12%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $49 −$21 -43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 20 $28 −$5 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $5 −$1 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $163 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $13 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 86¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $30 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 62¢ $14 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $37 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $51 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 30¢ $14 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $50 6d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL No $2 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 7d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.78 · official $40.84 (match) · 735 history records