Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24e4…0091
world · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage519d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $34 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $43 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $79 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $24 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $3 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $226 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Dec 06 $3 $0 +1%
St. Francis (PA) vs. Le-Moyne Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $4 −$1 -21%
Incarnate Word vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Feb 18 $26 +$25 +96%
Oregon State vs. Portland Feb 16 $5 +$5 +85%
Clemson vs. Florida State Feb 16 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Manchester City vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will egg prices be between $4.50-4.75 for January? Feb 13 $4 +$2 +49%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Feb 05 $10 $0 -1%
Will Dallas Goedert score a touchdown? Feb 05 $6 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$1
other 46% +$3
sports 7% −$12
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $37 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $36 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $42 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $46 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $46 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $23 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $23 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $38 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.2% -15.2% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 26 -5.6% -14.6% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 37 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 14% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 14% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 14% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 11% -26.6%
20% -35.4% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $5.14 (match) · 141 history records