Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
24 0x24eb…75ee sports 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,842 (-10%) realized −$5,702 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%125W / 171L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$330est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$255
14 days−$600
30 days−$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,759
other 0% −$128
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 57% +20.6%
≤30d 37 -30.8% -37.4% 35% 35% -20.0%
≤90d 157 -26.3% -33.3% 34% 33% -32.5%
all 296 -2.7% -12.0% 42% 40% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -18.7%
10% -20.4% 39% -26.5%
15% -28.1% 37% -33.6%
20% -35.2% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$171 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$553
Realized−$5,702
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses125 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$330
Open positions5
Markets (closed)296 / 301
History coverage306d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 71¢ 66¢ $426 $399 −$27 (-6%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ 99¢ $68 $104 +$35 (+52%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Yes 38¢ 1¢ $40 $1 −$39 (-97%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 48¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $98 −$95 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $118 +$92 +79%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $183 +$205 +112%
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $39 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $80 +$78 +97%
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $230 +$37 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $122 +$101 +83%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $136 −$133 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $680 −$677 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $398 +$397 +100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $301 +$71 +24%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $273 −$273 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $312 −$310 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $51 +$114 +226%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $453 +$776 +171%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $113 −$112 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $235 −$234 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $409 −$409 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$16 +20%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $119 −$118 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $426 +$265 +62%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $269 +$306 +114%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $235 −$235 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $68 +$42 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $279 −$279 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $221 −$217 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 13 $168 −$165 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $166 −$166 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $809 −$794 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $135 −$133 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winne May 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 12 $96 −$96 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $117 −$117 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 1 Winner May 12 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $59 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $9 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 71¢ $35 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 71¢ $73 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 71¢ $24 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 71¢ $12 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 71¢ $281 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 48¢ $110 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $52 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $118 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $7 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $100 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $76 2d
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Fennel 52¢ $34 2d
Valorant: Riddle vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner BUY Fennel 47¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Eternal Fire 50¢ $80 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $2 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $7 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $15 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $15 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $8 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $14 4d
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 86¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.71 · official $552.71 (match) · 1144 history records