Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x24ed…7f84 sports 17 markets active 15h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$780 (-18%) realized −$478 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$742
7 days−$903
14 days−$499
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$4
other 14% −$271
world 12% −$495
crypto 4% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.3% -35.2% 40% 40% -39.8%
≤30d 13 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 46% -22.6%
≤90d 13 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 46% -22.6%
all 13 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 46% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 46% -22.6%
10% -26.0% 46% -30.0%
15% -33.2% 46% -36.8%
20% -39.7% 46% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$278 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$445
Realized−$478
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage13d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $247 $195 −$52 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $154 $123 −$31 (-20%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $70 −$29 (-29%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $246 $56 −$190 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $502 −$495 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $251 −$247 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $251 +$225 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $251 −$247 -99%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $250 +$131 +52%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $251 −$247 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $251 −$247 -99%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $251 +$191 +76%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $249 +$246 +98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $213 −$210 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $251 −$247 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $251 +$176 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $252 +$476 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $251 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $251 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $251 21h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $251 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $251 3d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $251 3d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 51¢ $68 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 52¢ $183 4d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $156 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $251 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $171 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 4d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 5d
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $86 5d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova BUY Magda Linette 56¢ $251 5d
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Mark Lajal 65¢ $250 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 50¢ $86 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton BUY Alexander Shevchenko 49¢ $164 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $213 5d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 51¢ $251 10d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $251 11d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 34¢ $252 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.68 · official $444.68 (match) · 29 history records