trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $264 | $267 | +$3 (+1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | $85 | $95 | +$9 (+11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $310 | +$200 | +64% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? | Jun 12 | $206 | −$206 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? | Jun 12 | $340 | −$340 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? | Jun 12 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? | Jun 10 | $295 | +$321 | +109% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? | Jun 10 | $1,135 | +$132 | +12% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? | Jun 10 | $247 | −$247 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $253 | +$365 | +144% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $324 | −$324 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? | Jun 08 | $190 | +$411 | +217% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $131 | −$131 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? | Jun 07 | $181 | +$287 | +158% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 6? | Jun 06 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? | Jun 06 | $72 | −$72 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? | Jun 06 | $300 | +$285 | +95% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $186 | +$336 | +181% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? | Jun 04 | $990 | −$990 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? | Jun 04 | $1,862 | −$1,727 | -93% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? | Jun 04 | $2,054 | +$1,104 | +54% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? | Jun 04 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15? | Apr 15 | $3 | +$2 | +82% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 41% | 41% | -0.6% |
| ≤30d | 23 | -10.6% | -19.1% | 43% | 43% | -18.7% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 46% | 46% | -18.7% |
| all | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 46% | 46% | -18.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.6% | 46% | -18.7% |
| 10% | -23.7% | 38% | -26.5% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 38% | -33.6% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 38% | -40.1% |