Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x24f0…7ad4 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,205 (+1%) realized +$3,404 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$4,022per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2,333est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$22,801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 250d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$31,458
crypto 24% −$10,392
other 7% −$16,206
politics 4% −$426
tech 2% +$5,552
finance 2% +$5,016
economics 0% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -28.6% -35.4% 35% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 44% +2.6%
≤90d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 44% +2.6%
all 54 -11.1% -19.6% 43% 41% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 41% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 37% -12.3%
15% -34.3% 31% -20.8%
20% -40.8% 30% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$5,106) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,138 vs −$1,854 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$22,801
Realized+$3,404
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2,333
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage250d
Avg bet$4,022
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $10,000 $9,928 −$72 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $8,000 $7,926 −$74 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $5,000 $4,948 −$52 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $7,257 +$9,483 +131%
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 21 $124 −$124 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3,566 −$102 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 end of February? Jun 21 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,624 −$1,624 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1,227 −$1,227 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6,569 −$831 -13%
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31? Jun 21 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 21 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 21 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3,049 −$3,049 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5,054 −$5,054 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,381 −$2,381 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5,558 −$5,558 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by November 10? Jun 21 $4,927 −$4,927 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 21 $1,608 −$1,608 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3,054 +$3,696 +121%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,162 +$11,577 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5,157 +$2,939 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5,158 +$3,068 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $313 +$478 +153%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,020 +$989 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,048 +$2,142 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,168 +$4,035 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5,036 +$1,531 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4,178 +$2,750 +66%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,018 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,037 +$2,002 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $136 −$2 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,080 +$4,096 +197%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,042 +$1,985 +65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,072 −$5,072 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $11,190 +$3,079 +28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5,106 +$5,552 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5,061 +$3,326 +66%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5,037 +$1,622 +32%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Feb 17 $656 +$945 +144%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $5,000 −$2,458 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $15,000 −$4,225 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 27 $1,000 −$949 -95%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 27 $7,000 −$1,220 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $15,000 −$1,859 -12%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 25 $7,814 +$1,574 +20%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 23 $2,000 +$4,986 +249%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $8,110 30m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10,093 31m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5,078 32m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $413 35m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 35¢ $145 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 60¢ $6,567 54m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 58¢ $3,759 54m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5,944 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $29 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $7 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $4 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $472 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $133 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $4 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $10 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $2 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $2 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $2 57m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $481 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $49 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 40¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,801.38 · official $22,801.38 (match) · 383 history records