Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24f9…6c3b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$793 (-25%) realized −$792 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$7
other 37% −$330
sports 18% −$553
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 60% -34.9%
≤30d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 60% -34.9%
≤90d 10 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 60% -34.9%
all 10 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 60% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 60% -34.9%
10% -24.8% 40% -41.1%
15% -32.1% 20% -46.8%
20% -38.8% 10% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$310 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$792
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $94 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $76 +$19 +24%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $40 +$37 +92%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $591 −$553 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $605 −$13 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $408 +$153 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $318 +$99 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$34 +17%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $375 −$371 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $95 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 10h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 96¢ $76 10h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 49¢ $40 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 4¢ $38 27h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $591 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 65¢ $591 45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $605 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $50 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $328 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $375 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.79 · official $92.81 (match) · 34 history records