Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x24fb…973e other 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,450 (+6%) realized +$8,088 · open +$1,362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate66%31W / 16L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$2,480per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$20,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,518
14 days−$2,727
30 days+$2,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$6,459
world 29% +$6,453
politics 6% −$4,723
crypto 2% +$845
tech 0% +$24
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -19.6% -27.3% 44% 25% -1.5%
≤90d 39 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 38% -5.8%
all 47 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 38% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 21% -11.7%
15% -28.4% 13% -20.2%
20% -35.4% 6% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,257) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$557 vs −$638 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$20,111
Realized+$8,088
Unrealized+$1,362
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses31 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)47 / 60
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2,480
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5,872 $6,058 +$186 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 81¢ 99¢ $4,329 $5,275 +$946 (+22%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 70¢ 81¢ $2,395 $2,789 +$393 (+16%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 82¢ 91¢ $2,152 $2,404 +$252 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 78¢ $820 $933 +$113 (+14%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $1,254 $797 −$458 (-37%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 70¢ 63¢ $707 $639 −$68 (-10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $532 $622 +$90 (+17%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 54¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 66¢ 78¢ $137 $163 +$26 (+19%)
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? Yes 35¢ 17¢ $307 $149 −$158 (-52%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 56¢ 99¢ $40 $71 +$31 (+77%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $1,658 −$1,518 -92%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $864 −$858 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $383 −$65 -17%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $185 −$176 -95%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $601 −$5 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2,345 −$34 -1%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $78 −$72 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,421 +$39 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6,137 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,749 +$861 +49%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 05 $83 −$5 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $130 −$129 -99%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 01 $2,017 +$1,275 +63%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $12,802 +$1,484 +12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 30 $406 +$32 +8%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 28 $17,052 +$1,773 +10%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 25 $134 −$75 -56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,066 +$2,263 +110%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? May 01 $136 +$44 +32%
Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? May 01 $470 +$30 +6%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,219 +$185 +15%
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30? May 01 $5,179 +$630 +12%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Apr 30 $4,099 −$494 -12%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 23 $1,468 +$332 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $3,974 +$1,150 +29%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi? Apr 22 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $2,214 −$265 -12%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Apr 17 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 16 $3,257 +$375 +12%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 11 $669 +$99 +15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 11 $1,924 +$400 +21%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $5,203 −$5,203 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 07 $428 −$421 -98%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $5,895 +$196 +3%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,855 +$56 +3%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 01 $8,604 +$540 +6%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Mar 24 $1,675 −$258 -15%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 24 $90 +$19 +21%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 18 $4,130 +$432 +10%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 17 $2,955 +$690 +23%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? Mar 09 $84 +$3 +3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $995 +$5 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 06 $10,268 +$4,339 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $8 19m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $185 28m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $363 40m
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $185 43m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $20 48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $2 48m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $25 49m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $9 52m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $67 53m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $3 59m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $209 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $1,239 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $66 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $30 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $215 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $575 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $466 2h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 12¢ $13 2h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,914 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $2,424 16h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,153 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 55¢ $72 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 57¢ $182 19h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $479 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 55¢ $60 19h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 20¢ $112 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $5 39h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $2,248 39h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2,249 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,110.60 · official $20,110.94 (match) · 1020 history records