Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x24fc…ea73
sports · 909 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$243 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$242 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$32
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses401 / 481
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions27
Markets (closed)882 / 909
History coverage100d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 27 History 882 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$23
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Top Esports 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 48¢ 47¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1 +$1 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 +$2 +152%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 +$2 +172%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $1 +$1 +134%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $1 +$1 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +112%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$272
culture 1% +$21
other 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $1 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $1 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $1 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $1 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $1 1h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $2 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $2 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 45¢ $2 7h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 7h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 7h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 47¢ $1 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +5.2% -4.8% 49% 49% -5.1%
≤30d 472 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 46% -5.8%
≤90d 853 -6.3% -15.2% 44% 43% -25.8%
all 882 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -13.0%
10% -21.6% 42% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 40% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 37% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.81 · official $31.82 (match) · 1509 history records