Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:07:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x24fd…ce0d other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$194 (+12%) realized +$198 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$225
14 days+$101
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$209
sports 23% +$85
crypto 7% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +81.8% +64.5% 38% 38% +13.0%
≤30d 21 +24.9% +13.0% 33% 33% -1.9%
≤90d 25 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +1.4%
all 25 +19.9% +8.5% 32% 32% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 32% +1.4%
10% -1.9% 28% -8.3%
15% -11.3% 28% -17.2%
20% -20.0% 24% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$44 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$198
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage38d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 38¢ 36¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$140 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$35 -68%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$142 -71%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $26 +$318 +1237%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $106 +$44 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 +$282 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 3d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $62 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $59 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $51 4d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $241 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.17 · official $146.17 (match) · 82 history records