Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
25 0x2502…cba8 politics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$4
world 12% $0
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 14 -5.4% -14.4% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage245d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $240 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Dec 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 12h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 13h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 19h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 19h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 21h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 21h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 31h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 33h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 38h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 39h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 40h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 40h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 42h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 42h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 45h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $238 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $239 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.23 · official $193.23 (match) · 36 history records