Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

25 0x2503…bb1c sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$78 (-26%) realized −$5 · open −$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$37per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-44.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-38.6%	-44.5%	43%	29%	-41.8%
≤30d	7	-38.6%	-44.5%	43%	29%	-41.8%
≤90d	7	-38.6%	-44.5%	43%	29%	-41.8%
all	7	-38.6%	-44.5%	43%	29%	-41.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.5%	29%	-41.8%
10%	-49.8%	29%	-47.3%
15%	-54.6%	29%	-52.4%
20%	-59.1%	14%	-57.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 82% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$26 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$5

Unrealized−$73

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$37

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner	InterActive Philippines	79¢	0¢	$73	$0	−$73 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	Jun 20	$69	+$4	+6%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$2	−$2	-100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$9	−$9	-100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$16	−$16	-100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A	Jun 19	$79	−$79	-100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	Jun 19	$47	+$22	+46%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner	Jun 19	$1	+$1	+78%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner	BUY InterActive Philippines	79¢	$73	1h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	SELL Carstensz	100¢	$73	8h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner	BUY Carstensz	94¢	$69	9h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	SELL LGD Gaming	100¢	$69	17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	BUY LGD Gaming	68¢	$47	17h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner	BUY Power Rangers	72¢	$9	18h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner	BUY Flame Team	54¢	$2	21h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner	SELL Zero Tenacity	100¢	$2	21h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner	BUY Zero Tenacity	55¢	$1	22h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	BUY VP.Prodigy	44¢	$16	23h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A	BUY Team Nemesis	85¢	$79	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 17 history records