Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2505…f148 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
politics 28% $0
other 23% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 +1.9% -7.8% 33% 22% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +1.1% -8.6% 27% 13% -9.5%
all 51 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage275d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $12 +$2 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $43 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $11 +$3 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $22 −$5 -24%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $7 $0 +1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $36 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $19 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $19 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 71¢ $38 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $32 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $32 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $16 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $22 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 29d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $23 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $40 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.69 · official $39.69 (match) · 155 history records