Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2506…93ca sports 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$351 (-28%) realized −$359 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%36W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$31
14 days−$39
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$142
sports 35% −$106
tech 17% −$13
politics 2% −$4
world 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$12
weather 1% −$8
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -66.3% -69.6% 25% 25% -69.4%
≤30d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 36% 36% -42.5%
≤90d 110 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 33% -39.6%
all 110 -19.4% -27.1% 33% 33% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 33% -39.6%
10% -34.1% 32% -45.4%
15% -40.4% 30% -50.7%
20% -46.3% 27% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$359
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses36 / 74
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)110 / 117
History coverage81d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $12 +$4 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $13 +$13 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $17 −$17 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $14 +$10 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $8 −$8 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 +$14 +129%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $77 −$40 -51%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 30 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $9 +$6 +62%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $107 −$49 -46%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $9 +$7 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $6 +$4 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $5 +$9 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 15 $4 −$3 -68%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 14 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $45 −$5 -10%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $7 +$5 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 08 $8 +$2 +24%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $3 +$2 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $15 −$5 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY Yes $10 8h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 11h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $4 19h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $15 20h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 20h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 21h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 25h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 35h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 35h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 35h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 38h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 38h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 43h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 44h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 45h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 45h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 45h
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $9 45h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 46h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 47h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $2 47h
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.18 · official $95.18 (match) · 785 history records