Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x2508…e25c crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$497 (-13%) realized −$497 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$405
sports 42% −$74
crypto 7% −$35
world 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +89.7% +71.6% 75% 75% -12.6%
≤30d 4 +89.7% +71.6% 75% 75% -12.6%
≤90d 54 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 43% -13.9%
all 70 -12.3% -20.7% 41% 41% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 41% -23.1%
10% -28.2% 41% -30.4%
15% -35.2% 41% -37.2%
20% -41.5% 34% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$42 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 41
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage96d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $0 +$1 +270%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 +$76 +148%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $248 +$103 +41%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $90 −$87 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 +$40 +79%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Apr 12 $158 −$155 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 12 $50 +$108 +216%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 07 $100 −$99 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $128 +$73 +57%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 Apr 07 $69 +$59 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$6 +188%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 06 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$8 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$4 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 06 $6 +$10 +165%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$3 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 06 $6 +$9 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$8 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5 Apr 05 $100 +$102 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $331 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 24¢ $100 47h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 96¢ $128 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $351 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 26¢ $0 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $248 4d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $90 62d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 62d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 62d
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) BUY CR Flamengo 37¢ $158 64d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) SELL Manchester City FC 100¢ $158 64d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 31¢ $50 65d
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) BUY FC Barcelona 42¢ $100 69d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $100 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 100¢ $200 70d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 63¢ $128 70d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 70d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 70d
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 53¢ $62 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 70d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.71 · official $336.74 · 131 history records