Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2509…4479 other 9 markets active 5h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-13%) realized −$83 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$116
14 days−$105
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.9% -98.1% 0% 0% -98.1%
≤30d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 88% 12% -22.9%
≤90d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 88% 12% -22.9%
all 8 -6.4% -15.3% 88% 12% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 12% -22.9%
10% -23.4% 0% -30.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -37.0%
20% -37.6% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$116 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage28d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $112 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $99 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.39 · official $98.39 (match) · 17 history records