Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
25 0x250b…da88 crypto 593 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-2%) realized −$145 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%316W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$227
14 days+$109
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$226
sports 7% −$187
other 5% +$151
weather 0% −$8
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +23.1% +11.4% 84% 63% +18.9%
≤30d 103 +6.3% -3.9% 66% 51% -10.0%
≤90d 253 -6.1% -15.1% 58% 43% -12.2%
all 591 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 38% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 38% -12.2%
10% -22.3% 31% -20.6%
15% -29.8% 24% -28.2%
20% -36.6% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses316 / 275
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)591 / 593
History coverage130d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 70¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 26¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +240%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 +$110 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $72 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $47 +$27 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $199 −$80 -40%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$9 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr SELL NAVI Junior 80¢ $52 4d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage SELL Enterprise Esports 87¢ $39 4d
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gr BUY NAVI Junior 77¢ $50 4d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Enterprise Esports 60¢ $10 4d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Enterprise Esports 55¢ $10 4d
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Enterprise Esports 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.88 · official $83.88 (match) · 1538 history records