Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x250b…383f
crypto · 1161 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$44 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$628 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$628
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses841 / 319
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1160 / 1161
History coverage48d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$28
14 days−$68
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$619
finance 0% −$1
other 0% −$18
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 59% -19.9%
≤30d 742 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 1160 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 38% -13.1%
all 1160 -3.9% -13.0% 72% 38% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 38% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 21% -21.4%
15% -29.0% 10% -29.0%
20% -35.9% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records