Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
25 0x250c…3490 crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+10%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%34W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$99
14 days+$89
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$39
sports 10% +$109
other 3% −$11
politics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +52.2% +37.7% 24% 24% +99.4%
≤30d 59 +9.9% -0.5% 25% 24% +10.1%
≤90d 60 +8.1% -2.2% 25% 23% +9.8%
all 126 -3.2% -12.4% 27% 26% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 26% -2.9%
10% -20.8% 25% -12.2%
15% -28.4% 25% -20.7%
20% -35.4% 25% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses34 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)126 / 134
History coverage132d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +261%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1469%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$122 +396%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 27 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $5 +$13 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 27 $5 +$26 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 27 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $152 33h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $3 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $3 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 36h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.28 · official $13.28 (match) · 196 history records