Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x250d…7b5f crypto 574 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-3%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%238W / 336L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$318
7 days−$133
14 days−$1,049
30 days−$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$571
sports 30% +$252
other 2% −$20
weather 0% +$2
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -12.5% -20.8% 42% 41% -15.9%
≤30d 450 -31.4% -37.9% 34% 32% -21.0%
≤90d 574 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 39% -15.9%
all 574 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 39% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 39% -15.9%
10% -28.8% 36% -23.9%
15% -35.7% 31% -31.3%
20% -42.0% 26% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses238 / 336
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)574 / 574
History coverage53d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 574 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$23 +110%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +93%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$21 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +92%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 5h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $5 7h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 9h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 27¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner BUY 9INE 43¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1318 history records