Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

25
0x250e…4be0
crypto · 89 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,450 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,973 · open −$523
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$333
Realized+$1,973
Unrealized−$523
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)86 / 89
History coverage1d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day292.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,973
7 days+$1,973
14 days+$1,973
30 days+$1,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 48¢ 46¢ $326 $318 −$8 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $520 $6 −$514 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $325 $0 −$325 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $263 $0 −$263 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $524 +$658 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $518 +$547 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $418 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1,277 +$1,147 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $735 −$700 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $628 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $807 −$449 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $726 +$400 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $280 −$85 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $819 −$419 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $729 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $479 −$318 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $414 +$391 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $414 +$396 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $414 +$135 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $416 −$115 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $409 +$324 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $626 −$340 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$211 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $932 +$284 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $517 −$401 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $521 −$306 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $418 +$748 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $629 −$40 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $209 +$114 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $518 +$528 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $391 −$372 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $277 −$263 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $363 +$666 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $579 +$307 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $518 −$80 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $210 +$509 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $527 +$1,121 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $235 +$284 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $313 −$43 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $522 −$83 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $133 +$253 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $209 −$199 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $210 +$481 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $341 −$325 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,450
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $95 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $44 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $65 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $107 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -1.2% -10.7% 38% 36% -2.4%
≤30d 86 -1.2% -10.7% 38% 36% -2.4%
≤90d 86 -1.2% -10.7% 38% 36% -2.4%
all 86 -1.2% -10.7% 38% 36% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover292.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 36% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 35% -11.7%
15% -27.0% 33% -20.3%
20% -34.2% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.32 · official $1,042.53 · 341 history records