Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x250f…785b crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$15
crypto 20% −$16
sports 8% −$12
weather 2% −$6
world 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 40% -3.2%
≤30d 11 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 18% -8.8%
≤90d 31 -27.6% -34.5% 48% 23% -14.7%
all 31 -27.6% -34.5% 48% 23% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 23% -14.7%
10% -40.7% 23% -22.8%
15% -46.5% 19% -30.3%
20% -51.7% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage76d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$5 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $43 +$45 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$16 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $26 −$12 -46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 7? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 08 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 08 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 7? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $80 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 72¢ $19 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $17 11d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 11d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? BUY No 1¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records