Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2510…b91b sports 829 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$857 (-10%) realized −$864 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%180W / 641L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$41
14 days+$35
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$238
weather 40% −$563
other 7% +$34
world 3% −$112
crypto 2% −$82
culture 2% −$3
politics 1% −$4
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.2% +17.8% 80% 80% +18.0%
≤30d 39 +24.5% +12.7% 59% 59% -7.0%
≤90d 318 -8.9% -17.6% 21% 20% -19.3%
all 821 -11.6% -20.0% 22% 20% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 20% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 18% -27.3%
15% -34.6% 16% -34.3%
20% -41.1% 14% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses180 / 641
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions8
Markets (closed)821 / 829
History coverage122d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 821 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $55 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 77¢ 83¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 68¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? No 73¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 86¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 25 $27 +$22 +80%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $27 +$7 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 +$16 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $23 −$10 -43%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $8 −$3 -43%
Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic May 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 28 $9 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 28 $4 +$8 +202%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 28 $17 +$5 +28%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 28 $13 +$12 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 28 $22 +$13 +57%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 28 $17 +$22 +127%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5 May 28 $28 +$21 +75%
Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5) May 28 $7 −$4 -51%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 27 $12 −$4 -28%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 27 $16 −$14 -84%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $103 −$52 -51%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $27 −$18 -67%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 27 $3 −$1 -56%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $7 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 26? May 27 $8 +$2 +28%
Club Nacional de Football vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26? May 27 $9 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26? May 27 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 26? May 27 $3 +$17 +488%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $16 +$13 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $39 +$16 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 27 $48 +$27 +56%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma May 27 $5 −$3 -54%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $45 −$27 -60%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $16 −$8 -49%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $15 −$6 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 26? May 26 $14 −$5 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $2 −$1 -49%
Chisinau: Laslo Djere vs Timofey Skatov May 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $16 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 26 $49 −$19 -39%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $43 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 27? May 26 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? May 26 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? May 26 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27? May 26 $4 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 25¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $27 2h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 12h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 12h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 77¢ $27 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $27 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $27 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $6 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 16d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 59¢ $6 21d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 31¢ $3 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 32¢ $10 22d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 56¢ $23 22d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 26d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 26d
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 86¢ $1 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 26¢ $4 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 44¢ $8 28d
Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5) SELL Connecticut Sun 24¢ $0 28d
Spread: PortlandFire (-6.5) SELL Connecticut Sun 24¢ $4 28d
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $28 28d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $9 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 SELL Under $0 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 SELL Under $3 28d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $16 28d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 24¢ $50 28d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL No 19¢ $9 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.07 · official $149.07 (match) · 2901 history records