Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2515…5189 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-8%) realized −$81 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$71
crypto 8% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤30d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -46.3%
≤90d 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -46.3%
all 4 -64.6% -68.0% 25% 25% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.0% 25% -46.3%
10% -71.0% 25% -51.5%
15% -73.8% 25% -56.2%
20% -76.4% 0% -60.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 38¢ 93¢ $49 $120 +$71 (+145%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $123 35m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.05 · official $120.05 (match) · 7 history records