Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2515…c2f8 world 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$79 (+10%) realized +$83 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +296% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +259% what you keep after slip
Net edge+259%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$51
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$191
other 28% −$27
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+258.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -25.8% -32.9% 50% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 7 +296.3% +258.6% 71% 71% +18.9%
all 7 +296.3% +258.6% 71% 71% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +258.6% 71% +18.9%
10% +224.3% 29% +7.6%
15% +192.9% 29% -2.8%
20% +164.2% 29% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +296% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$29 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage51d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 +$8 +12%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $99 −$34 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $173 +$33 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $65 +$108 +165%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $72 +$9 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $3 +$69 +2310%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $57 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $25 12d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $74 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $66 13d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $65 13d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $99 26d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $106 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $173 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $173 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $65 42d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $66 42d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $81 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $72 49d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.30 · official $96.30 (match) · 22 history records