Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x2515…a008 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,188 (-15%) realized −$1,188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%55W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$570
sports 37% −$355
culture 8% −$228
politics 2% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +16.2% +5.1% 65% 65% -1.4%
≤30d 20 +16.2% +5.1% 65% 65% -1.4%
≤90d 20 +16.2% +5.1% 65% 65% -1.4%
all 120 -15.2% -23.3% 46% 46% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 46% -24.3%
10% -30.6% 42% -31.6%
15% -37.3% 33% -38.2%
20% -43.5% 26% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$54 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses55 / 65
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage405d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $152 −$79 -52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$121 +80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$14 -64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +64%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? Aug 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-31? Aug 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $27 +$10 +35%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-19? Aug 23 $38 +$9 +25%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-16? Aug 16 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-17? Aug 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Marlins vs. Brewers Jul 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will PSG beat Chelsea? Jul 13 $65 −$62 -95%
PSG vs. Real Madrid: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 09 $50 +$28 +56%
Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 09 $50 +$6 +13%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea beat Palmeiras in regulation time? Jul 05 $100 −$74 -74%
Concacaf Gold Cup: Mexico vs. Honduras (To Advance) Jul 03 $100 +$18 +18%
FIFA Club World Cup: Dortmund vs. Monterrey (To Advance) Jul 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Juventus: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 01 $50 −$40 -81%
Manchester City vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 01 $100 +$39 +39%
Concacaf Gold Cup: USA vs. Costa Rica (To Advance) Jun 30 $60 +$18 +30%
Rockies vs. Brewers Jun 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Hamilton vs. Russell Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
PSG vs. Inter Miami: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 29 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 29 $110 +$36 +33%
Concacaf Gold Cup: Panama vs. Honduras (To Advance) Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Concacaf Gold Cup: Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia (To Advance) Jun 29 $100 +$27 +27%
Rockies vs. Brewers Jun 28 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? Jun 28 $50 −$41 -81%
RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 27 $18 +$19 +104%
Esperance Sportive vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 25 $26 −$8 -30%
Benfica vs. Bayern Munich: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 24 $52 −$38 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $65 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $73 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $273 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 42h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 251 history records