Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
25 0x2518…1c0b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-9%) realized −$57 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$27
sports 30% −$3
crypto 9% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.8% -21.1% 67% 50% -22.6%
≤30d 6 -12.8% -21.1% 67% 50% -22.6%
≤90d 6 -12.8% -21.1% 67% 50% -22.6%
all 6 -12.8% -21.1% 67% 50% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 50% -22.6%
10% -28.6% 33% -30.0%
15% -35.5% 33% -36.8%
20% -41.8% 17% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$71 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $91 +$16 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$26 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $64 +$29 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $80 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $107 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $91 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $93 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $64 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 10¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.10 · official $191.10 (match) · 19 history records