Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x251a…29c4 crypto 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$21
other 34% $0
world 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -32.9%
≤30d 4 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -32.9%
≤90d 4 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -32.9%
all 4 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 50% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 50% -32.9%
10% -25.3% 50% -39.4%
15% -32.5% 25% -45.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 3h
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $31 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.74 · official $68.74 (match) · 11 history records