Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x251b…edaf crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate89%48W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 19% +$7
crypto 18% −$14
tech 17% +$3
world 14% +$1
politics 13% +$3
other 12% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% -1.9%
≤30d 2 +7.9% -2.4% 100% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 17% -4.9%
all 54 -1.3% -10.7% 89% 22% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 22% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 7% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 7% -25.7%
20% -34.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses48 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage624d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30? Jun 22 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 30? Jun 22 $35 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? Apr 30 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Apr 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar Apr 30 $20 +$1 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Apr 30 $29 +$1 +3%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Feb 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Dec 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $14 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Oct 16 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before September? Sep 28 $12 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Aug 10 $12 $0 +3%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? Aug 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? Jun 29 $1 $0 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? Jun 29 $15 $0 +0%
Pelicans vs. Lakers May 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Apr 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Apr 05 $2 +$1 +72%
Lily Phillips sex event cancelled? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 05 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Feb 15 $1 $0 +37%
Hawks vs. Suns Feb 15 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Feb 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference? Feb 15 $5 $0 +3%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Feb 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will 'Emilia Perez' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Feb 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 15 $26 +$1 +3%
North Texas vs. Texas State Jan 08 $2 $0 +20%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 08 $12 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 03 $1 $0 +19%
Hornets vs. 76ers Jan 03 $1 $0 +12%
Warriors vs. Thunder Jan 03 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? Jan 03 $3 $0 +4%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 03 $4 $0 +9%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 03 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Tim Walz be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Nov 11 $8 $0 +1%
Trump sentenced to no prison time? Nov 11 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 52d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $23 52d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 52d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $56 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $14 128d
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Februar BUY Yes 97¢ $20 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $15 128d
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 188d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 223d
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 223d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $14 249d
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 249d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 267d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 267d
US-Iran nuclear deal before September? BUY No 98¢ $12 316d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 316d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? BUY No 97¢ $12 343d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August? BUY No 99¢ $23 343d
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 358d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $21 401d
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 401d
Ethereum above $2,500 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 401d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? BUY No 98¢ $5 401d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 401d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 443d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 99¢ $25 443d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 97¢ $4 443d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.16 · official $28.16 (match) · 112 history records