Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x251b…9f40 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$2
other 26% +$1
crypto 9% +$2
sports 6% +$9
politics 5% +$1
weather 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +6.8% -3.3% 27% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 11 +6.8% -3.3% 27% 9% -9.8%
all 45 +2.3% -7.5% 42% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -8.8%
10% -16.3% 7% -17.5%
15% -24.4% 4% -25.5%
20% -31.8% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage490d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 22 $69 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$7 -72%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $66 −$3 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +150%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $52 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4? Jul 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $3 $0 -4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 05 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $1 $0 +23%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $20 +$1 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Ole Miss win the SEC Tournament? Mar 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Wild vs. Kraken Mar 04 $20 $0 -2%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 04 $10 +$10 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $68 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $50 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $69 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $68 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $14 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $33 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 63¢ $16 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $9 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $27 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $30 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $28 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $11 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $32 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $34 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $36 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $8 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $48 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $48 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $62 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $61 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $36 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $2 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $38 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.32 · official $68.32 (match) · 140 history records