Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x251c…55b8 crypto 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,003 (-6%) realized −$1,965 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%115W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$86
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,884
other 8% −$271
world 1% +$140
politics 1% −$61
tech 0% −$57
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +61.0% +45.7% 39% 39% -5.5%
≤30d 34 +34.2% +21.5% 38% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 34 +34.2% +21.5% 38% 38% -12.2%
all 253 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -15.1%
10% -18.9% 43% -23.2%
15% -26.8% 42% -30.6%
20% -33.9% 40% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$130 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$1,965
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses115 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)253 / 257
History coverage375d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 32¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 30¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$33 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $32 +$191 +596%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $94 −$93 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 −$103 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $117 +$123 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $105 +$141 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$248 +307%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $358 −$97 -27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 −$90 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 +$126 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 +$120 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 +$101 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 +$200 +1116%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $86 +$74 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $73 +$90 +124%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$13 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $47 +$94 +200%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$44 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 20 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Nov 12 $8 +$14 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 7AM ET Nov 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9AM ET Nov 05 $110 +$90 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Nov 05 $102 +$98 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 05 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 05 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 04 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Nov 04 $110 +$90 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Nov 04 $101 +$99 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Nov 03 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 02 $104 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Nov 02 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $48 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $46 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 2¢ $5 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $45 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $32 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $82 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $94 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $56 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $105 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $129 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $82 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $99 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $117 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $88 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $107 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $81 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $99 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 62¢ $158 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $164 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $92 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $96 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $77 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $91 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $115 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $61 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $67 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.54 · official $131.54 (match) · 1246 history records