Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2524…9567 sports 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$225 (+7%) realized +$211 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 56L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$47
14 days+$263
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$260
other 41% −$18
crypto 5% −$27
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -34.3% -40.6% 33% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 101 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -3.0%
≤90d 101 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -3.0%
all 101 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 43% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 43% -3.0%
10% -24.9% 38% -12.3%
15% -32.2% 34% -20.8%
20% -38.8% 29% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$18 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$211
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 56
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 107
History coverage19d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 30¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-49%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 +$31 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $20 +$72 +353%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $111 +$73 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$58 +48%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $5 +$45 +874%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $110 +$15 +14%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Set Handicap: Tien (-1.5) vs Schoenhaus (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $20 +$27 +134%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$24 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Lautaro Midon 33¢ $10 37h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 37h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus BUY Renata Zarazua 40¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $20 4d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $5 4d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $30 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 4d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 25¢ $10 5d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 19¢ $10 5d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 65¢ $10 5d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 6d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $10 6d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $101 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.18 · official $234.19 (match) · 194 history records