Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2525…b919 world 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$88,156 (+15%) realized +$90,837 · open −$2,681
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%62W / 36L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$3,917per market
Trades / day124.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$74,355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$19,289
politics 18% −$2,341
other 6% −$3,955
economics 2% +$102
tech 2% +$162
finance 1% −$1,283
crypto 0% −$913
sports 0% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -18.0% -25.8% 47% 31% -10.6%
≤30d 98 +25.1% +13.2% 63% 34% -6.8%
≤90d 98 +25.1% +13.2% 63% 34% -6.8%
all 98 +25.1% +13.2% 63% 34% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 34% -6.8%
10% +2.4% 16% -15.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -23.9%
20% -16.6% 8% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$4,793) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$716 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$74,355
Realized+$90,837
Unrealized−$2,681
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses62 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions76
Markets (closed)98 / 152
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$3,917
Trades / day124.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 76 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $9,250 $9,859 +$609 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 54¢ $6,070 $5,758 −$312 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 53¢ 69¢ $4,387 $5,730 +$1,343 (+31%)
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $4,758 $5,164 +$405 (+9%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Yes 35¢ 27¢ $5,086 $3,952 −$1,134 (-22%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $3,771 $3,844 +$73 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 70¢ 69¢ $3,056 $3,022 −$34 (-1%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 78¢ 83¢ $2,757 $2,943 +$185 (+7%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,529 $2,541 +$12 (+0%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 69¢ $2,123 $2,311 +$188 (+9%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $2,100 $2,183 +$83 (+4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 42¢ 96¢ $945 $2,156 +$1,211 (+128%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 48¢ 46¢ $1,552 $1,459 −$93 (-6%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 55¢ 77¢ $1,008 $1,423 +$415 (+41%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 67¢ 82¢ $1,099 $1,354 +$255 (+23%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,264 $1,293 +$29 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 96¢ $1,027 $1,247 +$220 (+21%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 70¢ $1,107 $1,166 +$60 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,066 $1,150 +$85 (+8%)
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein? No 56¢ 98¢ $648 $1,126 +$478 (+74%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 83¢ $1,033 $1,063 +$30 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $1,080 $1,050 −$30 (-3%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 46¢ 92¢ $517 $1,036 +$519 (+100%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $623 $838 +$215 (+35%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $945 $805 −$140 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,435 +$913 +64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $2,083 +$954 +46%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5,713 +$736 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $13,489 +$2,618 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8,088 +$2,207 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11,849 +$506 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $87 −$86 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $25,683 −$6,024 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $11,307 −$2,712 -24%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $660 +$281 +43%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $865 +$135 +16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $17,179 +$2,078 +12%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $3,391 +$218 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $965 −$231 -24%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $465 +$166 +36%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 11 $2,142 −$960 -45%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 11 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5,060 −$2,282 -45%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $8,554 −$807 -9%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5,708 +$4,298 +75%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $2,120 −$917 -43%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 11 $1,601 −$258 -16%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $371 +$32 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 09 $1,274 −$14 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 09 $3,254 +$12 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 09 $1,232 −$78 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $488 −$488 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $616 −$157 -26%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $1,331 +$134 +10%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $2,187 +$293 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $30,858 −$1,811 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 08 $724 −$682 -94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 08 $3,766 +$125 +3%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $40 +$7 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $524 +$86 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3,444 −$429 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1,380 −$287 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,088 −$482 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,086 −$10 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $4,793 +$169 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $47 +$117 +246%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1,922 +$78 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Jun 07 $748 −$78 -10%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 07 $1,212 +$240 +20%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $7,636 +$520 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 05 $360 −$360 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $7 2m
Will "Oil" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 78¢ $63 13m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $495 42m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $6 44m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $684 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,795 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $527 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $767 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $96 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $925 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $864 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5,382 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 65¢ $159 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $1,284 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $3,056 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,099 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3,114 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $222 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $95 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $764 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $52 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $58 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $38 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $37 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,354.84 · official $74,411.63 (match) · 3500 history records