Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
25 0x2525…4850 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+7%) realized +$232 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,318
other 23% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% +4.3%
≤30d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% +4.3%
≤90d 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% +4.3%
all 11 +3.0% -6.8% 55% 55% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 55% +4.3%
10% -15.8% 55% -5.7%
15% -23.9% 55% -14.8%
20% -31.4% 55% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$367 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,212
Realized+$232
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 80¢ $528 $802 +$274 (+52%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $500 $410 −$90 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $254 +$227 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,043 +$1,010 +97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$36 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$181 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$326 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $642 +$600 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $28 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $507 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $480 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $254 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $517 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $304 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $507 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 36h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,054 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $28 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $507 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana BUY 11¢ $62 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $333 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $152 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $832 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $506 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,242 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $571 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,211.54 · official $1,222.17 (match) · 25 history records