Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2529…548a sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (252 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100,835 (+55%) realized +$100,939 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%122W / 116L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day252.0pace
Fees−$3,588est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (252 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -14.1% -22.3% 42% 37% -11.0%
≤30d 238 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 238 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 44% -9.6%
all 238 -5.0% -14.0% 51% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover252.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 44% -9.6%
10% -22.3% 33% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -29.8% 21% -26.1%
20% -36.7% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$306 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,387
Realized+$100,939
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,588
Open positions6
Markets (closed)238 / 244
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$751
Trades / day252.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 69¢ 100¢ $695 $1,000 +$305 (+44%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 60¢ 48¢ $375 $298 −$76 (-20%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 100¢ $45 $62 +$17 (+38%)
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz Fritz 68¢ 68¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Galloway/Peers 30¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 18¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner K27 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Giron Jun 16 $49 −$3 -7%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Landaluce vs Fritz Jun 16 $90 −$10 -12%
Set 1 Winner: Agut vs Giron Jun 16 $26 −$16 -60%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $86 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs McCabe Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Botic van de Zandschulp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 −$50 -81%
Yannick Hanfmann vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 16 $32 −$4 -13%
Libema Open (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Borges/Polmans Jun 16 $111 −$41 -37%
Set 1 Winner: Kyrgios vs Moutet Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 16 $117 −$23 -20%
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs Duckworth Jun 16 $72 −$58 -81%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $190 −$61 -32%
Set 1 Winner: McCabe vs Bergs Jun 16 $71 −$58 -81%
Ugo Humbert vs. Benjamin Bonzi: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 16 $264 −$68 -26%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $162 −$162 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $345 −$232 -67%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $589 −$188 -32%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 16 $116 −$95 -82%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 16 $181 −$115 -64%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,194 −$597 -50%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 16 $76 −$26 -35%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 16 $42 −$31 -74%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Cabral/Mektic vs Hidalgo/Trhac Jun 16 $38 −$38 -99%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Schnaitter/Wallner vs Glinka/Sakellaridis Jun 16 $74 −$73 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 16 $347 −$137 -40%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Gentzsch vs Hijikata Jun 16 $76 −$65 -85%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Cilic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Otto Virtanen vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Boogaard vs Wu Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$118 +77%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Minaur Jun 13 $247 +$11 +4%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $130 −$37 -28%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $124 +$197 +158%
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $176 −$18 -10%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $173 +$27 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $215 +$74 +34%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $647 +$143 +22%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,040 +$313 +30%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 11 $476 +$141 +30%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $205 +$77 +38%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $692 +$56 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $256 +$43 +17%
Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $228 +$82 +36%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $752 +$215 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Boogaard Jun 11 $237 +$53 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz BUY Fritz 68¢ $17 34m
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Galloway/Peers 31¢ $2 34m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 82¢ $79 38m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL K27 55¢ $138 39m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 73¢ $24 41m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 73¢ $7 41m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 41m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $152 41m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 58¢ $145 41m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 60¢ $9 42m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 58¢ $29 42m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 58¢ $24 42m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 56¢ $140 43m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 71¢ $50 44m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $5 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 49m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $123 49m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $2 49m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 79¢ $5 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $16 49m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $92 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 65¢ $6 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 58¢ $78 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 58¢ $67 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 64¢ $10 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 34¢ $1 54m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 57¢ $2 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,387.28 · official $1,387.28 (match) · 3500 history records