Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x252a…41e8 crypto 1207 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-3%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate89%1069W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$32
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -4.3% -13.4% 86% 30% -13.2%
≤30d 1011 -2.8% -12.0% 89% 23% -12.3%
≤90d 1207 -2.9% -12.2% 89% 23% -12.7%
all 1207 -2.9% -12.2% 89% 23% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 23% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 8% -21.1%
15% -28.3% 3% -28.7%
20% -35.3% 1% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1069 / 138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1207 / 1207
History coverage35d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1207 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2530 history records