Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x2530…7e19 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,035per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$13
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.8% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -39.9% -45.6% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 22 -45.4% -50.6% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 22 -45.4% -50.6% 55% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -55.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -59.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -63.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,066) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -45% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2,068
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1,035
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $2,072 $2,063 −$9 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,068 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,058 +$6 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $2,054 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,050 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? May 30 $2,082 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? May 29 $2,077 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $2,073 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? May 28 $2,069 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 27? May 27 $2,064 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,072 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2,068 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $68 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,058 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,054 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2,050 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9? BUY No 0¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 0¢ $4 14d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,082 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $2,077 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,073 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $2,069 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,064 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 23d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,067.80 · official $2,067.80 (match) · 36 history records