Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x2531…d9f1 economics 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 340d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$348 (-21%) realized −$173 · open −$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 340d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$175
economics 12% −$209
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$70 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$1,266
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage340d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,411 $1,258 −$153 (-11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 21 $69 −$69 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $75 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $520 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $416 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 28d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 37d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 65d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $200 65d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 69d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 69d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $150 70d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 158d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 309d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $42 321d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 339d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 340d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,266.48 · official $1,266.48 (match) · 91 history records