Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
25 0x2532…ff89 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$17
politics 28% −$10
sports 6% +$51
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 2% -9.6%
all 122 +3.8% -6.1% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 7% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)122 / 125
History coverage120d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $443 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $698 −$1 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 16 $198 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $243 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $472 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $179 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $164 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $233 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $181 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $182 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $441 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $186 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $632 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 21h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 27h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 34h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 25d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 31d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $176 31d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $176 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 32d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $192 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $192 33d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $172 33d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $172 34d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $196 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.87 · official $90.87 (match) · 340 history records