Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2532…32bb world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% $0
politics 27% $0
other 23% −$2
sports 17% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 39 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage294d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $9 −$1 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mary Lou McDonald win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
2025 August third hottest on record? Sep 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 9h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $14 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $30 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $5 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $22 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $13 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.02 · official $36.06 (match) · 121 history records