Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2533…926e sports 152 markets active 5d ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-6%) realized −$83 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%57W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$36
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$1
other 32% −$205
crypto 20% +$96
politics 4% +$29
tech 3% +$19
culture 2% −$33
world 2% −$36
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -52.6% -57.1% 0% 0% -56.7%
≤30d 19 +22.4% +10.7% 37% 37% +33.1%
≤90d 70 -10.4% -19.0% 41% 41% -13.7%
all 143 -8.6% -17.3% 40% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 40% -13.6%
10% -25.3% 36% -21.9%
15% -32.5% 34% -29.4%
20% -39.1% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses57 / 86
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)143 / 152
History coverage567d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 49¢ 13¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-73%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 31¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 64¢ 10¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Yes 33¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 55¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $8 +$37 +455%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $9 −$6 -61%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $7 +$18 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $3 +$4 +123%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $5 +$14 +270%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $18 +$3 +16%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Alexander Blockx win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Mad May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $15 −$6 -37%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $5 −$4 -78%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $3 +$5 +170%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 10 $11 −$1 -10%
Mexico City: Beibit Zhukayev vs Corentin Denolly Apr 09 $10 +$2 +24%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Apr 05 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Mia Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-1.5) Apr 04 $7 +$4 +52%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Spread: Bucks (-2.5) Apr 04 $10 +$5 +54%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider Apr 03 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Mar 25 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami O Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Mar 23 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Mar 22 $5 −$4 -72%
Spread: Clippers (-7.5) Mar 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-6.5) Mar 22 $9 −$3 -33%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-5.5) Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-6.5) Mar 22 $10 +$7 +70%
76ers vs. Jazz Mar 22 $15 +$4 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 47¢ $3 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $3 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 9d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 58¢ $8 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 11d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 14d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 68¢ $3 15d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 16d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 47¢ $3 16d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 27¢ $3 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $7 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 44¢ $3 16d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $7 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 16d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 17d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 51¢ $3 18d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes $4 18d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.66 · official $29.66 (match) · 484 history records