Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
25 0x2535…4278 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$552 (+12%) realized +$516 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate97%34W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$390
14 days+$390
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$579
crypto 34% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.8% +5.7% 100% 42% +5.1%
≤30d 23 +16.0% +5.0% 96% 39% +2.0%
≤90d 35 +18.6% +7.3% 97% 46% +5.4%
all 35 +18.6% +7.3% 97% 46% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 46% +5.4%
10% -2.9% 29% -4.7%
15% -12.3% 20% -13.9%
20% -20.9% 17% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$87 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.02 per $1 lost it wins $9.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized+$516
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses34 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage52d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? No 91¢ 97¢ $472 $508 +$36 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $443 +$31 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 29 $280 +$162 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? Jun 29 $238 +$43 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $235 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $220 +$13 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $191 +$29 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $154 +$37 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $144 +$9 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $96 +$48 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $89 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $84 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $73 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $44 +$29 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 03 $182 −$87 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $66 +$10 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $53 +$12 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $90 +$16 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $551 +$187 +34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $113 +$74 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $17 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 88¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 88¢ $134 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 91¢ $181 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 29? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $474 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $443 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $443 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $280 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28? BUY No 84¢ $238 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $235 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $233 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $220 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $220 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $191 43h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $191 46h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $154 47h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $144 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? SELL No 96¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26? BUY No 62¢ $96 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 26? SELL No 86¢ $96 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 77¢ $89 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $89 3d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $79 17d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $73 18d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.79 · official $507.79 (match) · 108 history records