Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x2535…7c40 other 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-31%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$55
sports 34% +$1
crypto 11% −$9
weather 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.3% -29.7% 33% 28% -35.6%
≤30d 19 -26.4% -33.4% 32% 26% -38.9%
≤90d 21 -27.8% -34.6% 33% 24% -38.7%
all 21 -27.8% -34.6% 33% 24% -38.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 24% -38.7%
10% -40.9% 19% -44.6%
15% -46.6% 19% -49.9%
20% -51.8% 14% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage79d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 30 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29? Mar 29 $10 −$9 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 44h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $10 44h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 44h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 78d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 80d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records