Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
25 0x253a…4cbd crypto 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-5%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% $0
crypto 22% −$2
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 50% -43.1%
≤30d 2 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 50% -43.1%
≤90d 2 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 50% -43.1%
all 2 -36.1% -42.2% 50% 50% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 50% -43.1%
10% -47.7% 50% -48.6%
15% -52.8% 0% -53.5%
20% -57.4% 0% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 9m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 26m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 35m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $1 36m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 40m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 40m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $0 41m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 44m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $1 51m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 51m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.44 · official $14.44 (match) · 20 history records