Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
25 0x253a…3f67 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+14%) realized +$72 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$28
other 20% −$30
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.7% -1.7% 56% 56% -9.8%
≤30d 9 +8.7% -1.7% 56% 56% -9.8%
≤90d 9 +8.7% -1.7% 56% 56% -9.8%
all 10 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 50% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 50% -12.2%
10% -20.0% 50% -20.6%
15% -27.7% 50% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 40% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$37 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage146d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Over 34¢ 32¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$36 +118%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $27 −$27 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 24h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $27 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 26h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 39h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.71 · official $118.71 (match) · 19 history records